President Trump Should Win Again in 2020 Poll 01/29/19

Any significant shift in President Donald Trump's back up among Hispanic voters could accept a decisive upshot on his 2020 reelection prospects. | Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

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Is Trump really winning over Hispanics?

It'due south probably not true that half of Hispanics are on Trump'south side. Simply it's unclear that his obsession with edge security is driving his numbers down.

President Donald Trump's new favorite talking indicate is a claim that his recent crusade for a southern border wall, which draws furious accusations of xenophobia and racism, has made him more than likable to Hispanics.

"When y'all await at the Hispanic polls, I'm upward xix pct," Trump said at the White House last week. "And the reason I'm up nineteen percent … I think it's the fact that they sympathize, amend than anybody, what's going on at the border."

It was at least the third time Trump has publicly referenced the surprising number, including in a January. 27 tweet in which he argued his monthlong standoff with Congress was a political success. It appears to come from an NPR/Marist poll that shows his approval rating among Hispanics soaring from 31 percent in Dec to 50 percent this calendar month.

"Information technology's an amazing number," Flim-flam News host Pete Hegseth told viewers days after the Jan. 17 poll was released.

Just veteran pollsters who spoke with Pol called the number suspect, citing issues with the poll's sample size and methodology. Broader polling information show niggling sign that Trump's continuing with Hispanics is on the rise.

To the consternation of Democrats, yet, information technology doesn't seem to be falling, either. Trump's dire rhetoric about clearing seems to have done little impairment to his minor — simply not insignificant — back up among Hispanics.

Trump's support amid Latinos and Hispanics in three other polls taken in January — eighteen per centum in a ABC/Washington Post survey, 30 percentage in a The Economist/YouGov one, and 35 percent in poll from Quinnipiac University — produced an average of 27.6 percent.

That roughly matches the 29 per centum of the Hispanic vote Trump carried in the 2016 presidential ballot, an improvement of two percentage points over Mitt Romney's performance with those voters four years earlier.

Any meaning shift in Trump'due south back up amidst Hispanic voters could take a decisive consequence on his 2020 reelection prospects. For example, in 2016 Trump carried Florida — where virtually 1 in 6 voters is Hispanic — past simply over one percentage indicate.

POLITICO/Morning Consult polling over the past 2 months too suggests the border wall-fueled shutdown had little effect on Trump's blessing rating among Hispanic voters. In the three weeks leading up to the shutdown, Trump's approval rating among Hispanics stood at 30 percent. That ticked down to 28 percentage in the three polls so far in January — statistically unchanged from the preshutdown surveys.

"Generally, Trump is probably around 25% approval among Latinos right now nationally, based on the decrease in his poll standings after the shutdown," Matt Barreto, co-founder of the polling and research firm Latino Decisions, wrote in an email to POLITICO.

That a president who tweeted in November that "Mexico should motility the flag waving Migrants, many of whom are stone cold criminals, back to their countries" retains the blessing of well-nigh one-quarter of U.S. Hispanics is a source of worry for some Democrats who fear their party isn't doing plenty to court Hispanic voters on the fence well-nigh the president.

"My problem is I'm always sounding the warning and they're wanting to shoot the messenger," said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster and president of the consulting firm Bendixen and Amandi.

Amandi warned Florida Democrats they were in danger of losing the governor'southward mansion last fall considering of their lackluster outreach to minority communities. Former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis won the governorship in November.

"A lot of people are challenge this border wall matter is a lark in trying to attract minority support [for Trump], merely the data shows the contrary is true," a pollster for the president'southward reelection campaign said. "The just manner I could run across someone maxim, 'I'chiliad surprised he's doing well with the Latino community,' is if they thought the but matter Latinos intendance about is clearing and that Latinos believe Donald Trump is racist."

The Trump pollster and Amandi both said a strong economy has helped sustain Trump's backing among some Hispanics. Federal labor statistics prove Hispanic unemployment to exist at a historic low.

Trump's actions on problems similar religious liberty and ballgame have besides won praise among socially bourgeois Hispanics, many of whom are Cosmic. And Trump argues that he appeals to a law-and-order instinct amid some Hispanics.

Amandi called the economy "unmarried-handedly the most important result" for Hispanic voters, while adding: "At that place'southward likewise a reactionary segment of the Hispanic electorate who is aligned with some of the Trump administration's thinking on immigration and on some social issues."

The NPR/Marist poll that has drawn Trump's admiration was released midway through the partial authorities shutdown caused by Trump'due south need for $five.7 billion in border wall funding and congressional Democrats' refusal to grant information technology. It was also conducted a few months after a midterm elections campaign in which Trump was widely accused of demonizing migrant caravans trying to enter the U.Southward. from Primal America.

Pollsters attribute Trump's unexpected uptick in the NPR/Marist poll to the poll's sample size and methodology. The poll included responses from 1,023 U.S. adults, 154 of whom identified as Latino — "besides few to yield accurate representation," as the National Clan of Hispanic Journalists puts it. The poll besides had an unusually large margin of error: 9.9 per centum points.

"More than small sample size, their poll did non attempt to get a counterbalanced and representative sample of Latinos," said Barreto, who noted that the survey included few if any Spanish-language interviews.

Marist poll director Lee Miringoff said of his group's poll on a podcast last calendar week: "This is not a survey of the Latino population. This is a survey of Americans, of which that is a subgroup. Statistically, there is a difference [from terminal calendar month] that nosotros're measuring, only numerically it may or may not exist as peachy as the president would betoken."

A sudden and substantial swing in support for Trump isn't unique to the NPR/Marist poll. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said it'south something he sees frequently in his own system's national polls, and that a abrupt uptick or decline amongst certain subgroups is nearly often the outcome of a narrow sample.

The partisan tendency to crimson-pick results is i of the reasons why Monmouth and other well-known polling institutions avoid releasing information on subgroups that are interviewed or decline to indicate sample size. For example, neither Quinnipiac University or ABC News and The Washington Postal service indicated the sample size of Hispanic participants in their polls released this month, but the broad national sample upon which the results were based. Furthermore, the gaps between results underscore the difficulty pollsters have in accurately representing Latino and Hispanic sentiments.

"The problem is that estimates from small survey subsamples have large margins of error, and so the risks of outliers are even greater," John Sides, a political science professor at George Washington University, said. "Simply as you shouldn't focus on any one poll'southward estimate of Trump's overall approval rating, you certainly shouldn't cherry-pick i poll's approximate of his approval rating amongst Latinos."

2 sources close to Trump's reelection effort said that it is unlikely to expend major resources trying to expand his share of the Hispanic vote.

On the flip side, Democrats volition be working hard to drive Trump's share of the Hispanic vote below its 2016 level, hoping to win back Florida and other states he narrowly carried that twelvemonth.

The 2020 Autonomous presidential nominee will "have to make a real targeted endeavor for certain racial and ethnic groups in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Florida" to prevent Trump from securing a second term, the pollster involved in the entrada said.

Steven Shepard contributed to this report.

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Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/trump-hispanic-support-poll-2020-1136373

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